University of Ulster Latest Housing Survey

19 June 2008
The volume of house sales in Northern Ireland suffered a decline in the first quarter of this year, according to the latest University of Ulster Quarterly House Price Index,

The survey – the broadest based and most authoritative of all those undertaken in Northern Ireland – showed the lowest number of quarterly house sales since it began in 1984.

Between January and March the University recorded 896 transactions from almost 120 estate agencies, compared with 2,120 in the same period the previous year, a drop of almost 60 per cent.

The figures mean North and West Belfast continue to be one of the most affordable places to live in Northern Ireland

In the neighbouring boroughs of Lisburn, East Antrim (Newtownabbey, Carrick and Larne), and Ballymena, average house prices now stand at £257,190, £211,662 and £188,147, respectively.

Commenting on house prices, the survey's authors – Professor Alastair Adair, Professor Stanley McGreal and Mrs Louise Brown of the University of Ulster - said that while there was an inevitable market correction, price levels had not collapsed.

The average price of a house in Northern Ireland, at £230,908, was still 7.5 per cent higher than a year previously but prices in the first quarter fell by 4.6 per cent compared with the last quarter of 2007 demonstrating the continuing correction in the housing market.

The authors said: "However, the short term quarter figures suggest a weak market during the first three months of 2008 which, if it continues into the second and third quarters of the year, may well see annual rates of change move into negative figures.

"Potentially of greater concern is the small volume of sales activity. The trend of reduced sales has been evident since mid 2007 but in the first quarter of this year it reached a new low, falling to the smallest ever volume of transactions since the start of the survey in 1984."

According to the University's research, price falls largely applied to properties worth less than £250,000. Higher priced properties faired better and appeared to be less exposed to the current market downturn.

The economist Alan Bridle, Head of Research at Bank of Ireland Northern Ireland, said: "With two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the local housing market is technically in recession for the first time since the early 1990s. The overwhelming theme of this survey is the lack of sales and the repercussions for the house building industry but, on an overall basis, the decline in average prices in the quarter has been relatively modest, contrary to some speculation.

"Price trends are not uniform across the region or property types, with significant discounting in some areas partially offset by increases and stickiness in others. As an observation we may have something of a stalemate, with vendors looking to sell at 2007 prices and potential buyers deferring purchase in anticipation of lower prices and easier access to credit later in 2008 or 2009. It is not certain how this will play out over the coming quarters but the risks to prices remain on the downside."

Meanwhile, the detached house market has been showing annual increases.
The average for detached bungalows at £310,787 was 15.3 per cent higher and detached houses at £354,527 were 9.8 per cent higher than a year previously. In contrast, the average price of terraced/townhouses at £170,912 was down by 3.6 per cent over the year; semi-detached houses at £210,908 down by 1.2 per cent; and semi-detached bungalows at £185,672 were down 6.9 per cent.



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